Discussion draft · Evidence reviewed to 3 November 2026
Explore individual instruments and routes, with their implementation status and operational readiness. Select a card for the funding basis, activation steps and delivery route.
Layers indicate likely fit and speed indicates the intended use window. Readiness describes the route, while each figure has its own scope.
Start with the six instrument families used in the strategy. Explore their trade-offs together, then follow the links to individual providers and financing routes.
Table 19 in the full strategy gives a historical assessment of generic instruments. Select a cell for its rationale and the evidence needed for a current decision.
The historical matrix always covers the six DRFS families. It covers wider considerations. Marginal cost, instrument terms and government priorities also matter. Reassessment follows §5.5 and must use current offers and assumptions.
The strategy’s marginal-cost comparison assumes a 10% sovereign borrowing rate, a 4% investment return, a 77% social return on displaced expenditure and an ARC pricing multiple of 1.5. These are historical modelling inputs. Their implied switching points require recalibration.
For each current offer, compare premium or interest, fees, reserve carrying cost, displaced programme benefits and future debt service on the same loss and payment schedule. Include the cost of a missed trigger, late settlement and policy renewal.
Section 5.5 proposes a detailed instrument submission, Technical Committee review using updated costs and wider criteria, recommendations, and a ministerial decision. Confirm the operative institutional route before adoption.
RRO/CERCs repurpose project resources, IMF facilities address macroeconomic needs, and PSNP delivers assistance. These retain distinct functions in the detailed inventory.
Combine retained resources, conditional finance and transfer by severity and time. Lower layers continue to contribute to larger events, subject to their remaining capacity.
Severity rises upwards. Time runs left to right. The 30, 90 and 365-day windows are planning checkpoints. Instrument access and expenditure dates require validation. Block size does not represent financial capacity.
Authorised source → cleared public receipt or partner allocation → approved release → Treasury / EDRMC / regional implementer → household, service or asset.
PSNP and other delivery channels need matched funding. Insurance proceeds are payable to the recipients named in each policy. Record public cash and direct delivery separately, with one funding origin per transaction.
The strategy’s indicative boundaries are up to 10 years, 10–30 years and above 30 years. Calibrate attachment and exhaustion to current Ethiopian liabilities and losses before adopting thresholds.
| Hazard | 1-in-10 | 1-in-30 | 1-in-50 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Drought | 1,017 | 1,353 | 1,485 |
| Flood | 124 | 172 | 198 |
These are dated model outputs. Costs of compound events may interact. Current funding gaps require consistent cost dates, currencies, public liability and available finance.